Latest #DSA on #GR. The underlying assumptions have changed little from the previous exercise, so I will not repeat them. Scenarios: A-Base, B&C-Worst, and D-Best case. Just to get a feeling about how vulnerable to downside risks the Greek economy is, and why it should continue to be financed through low-interest loans from the #ESM beyond Aug18, consider this: The “best of worst cases” (Scenario B) assumes just 0.5% higher refinancing rate, 0.2% lower primary surplus and 0.3% lower growth compared to Base, yet these are enough to drive the Debt/GDP ratio upwards from 2050 onwards. Not to mention the risks arising from the inherent uncertainty of forecasting 40 years in the future.
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