I must admit, I didn’t expect Tereza May’s initial deal to be rejected by the British parliament. Not because it was the best deal ever, but because I honestly believe (and as many European heads of state have repeatedly said) it is the best deal that the EU could provide to the UK.
Does the UK’s position that it is not possible to treat one of their constituent states, effectively as part of the EU, while the country as a whole has made the decision to withdraw, has some merit? Definitely.
Can the UK get a deal that will include hard borders between Ireland and Northern Ireland? Not unless the Irish government allows it. That’s the reality on the ground. This has been the case from the beginning. Ever since the UK triggered Article 50, the 26 unanimously announced that they would adopt the position of the Irish government on the issue.
It is imperative that the UK government (and more importantly, the members of the parliament) realize sooner, rather than later, that the outcome of the BrExit talks doesn’t only have to do with the terms under which the UK will leave the EU: The whole process will be assessed as a benchmark by every other country in the future that may get any ideas about leaving.
Some people in Brussels (and especially Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council) rejoice every time Prime Minister May’s deals are refuted by the British Parliament, since this means that there is increased chance for the UK to recall the triggering of the Article 50.
On the other hand, this is a scenario that is completely off the table according to the British government.
This leaves us with only one option to which both parties agree, which is the extension of the period of negotiations and is by far the worst possible option, especially for the UK. Because it will leave citizens and businesses on both sides of the equation in a state of flux, under which no one likes to live and/or operate. And so I predict now, that the businesses that have BrExit plans in place, and enough resources to execute them, will not give the UK another chance. The rate of exit of Europeans working in high value-adding posts will accelerate, thereby further increasing the brain drain.
No one likes to have their future depend on someone else’s whims, especially in business. Making a bad decision (even one as bad as BrExit) always means that you can work towards reducing its negative impact. But not making a decision means that you cannot work towards anything until a decision is actually made. By which time, it may be too late for some of the negative impact to be reversed.